The NFL Draft always brings with it a flurry of trades with teams negotiating their way around the board to find their guys and get the best value they can.
For a team like the Houston Texans, given they have no picks in the first two rounds and multiple positions of need it seems logical to suggest they may look to move back and acquire more picks come the draft, as suggested by John McClain in a recent article.
READ MORE: Amid Uncertainty, Should Texans Draft A QB?
With this in mind, we have used a version the draft pick Trade Value Chart created by the Dallas Cowboys front office back in the 1990s to simulate a few potential trades that could see the Texans moving back from their earliest pick at number 67.
Each trade equates to an approximately even value for both teams and only involves picks in 2021. We have played with the numbers while understanding that such moves are about targeted players – not just picks.
Texans 3+4 For Raiders 3+3
In this scenario, the Texans would part with their 67th overall pick and their 109th overall pick in the third and fourth rounds respectively for Las Vegas’ two third-round picks at 79 and 80. Vegas has needs, but arguably not as many as Houston, and Raiders general manager Mike Mayock has not been shy in trading to get their guys in the past.
Why you do it: Houston would in part have to believe that the players available 13 spots behind pick No. 67 are comparable – in a “bunch” – with the players at 67.
Texans 3 For Patriots 4+4+4+5
Texans GM Nick Caserio could put his New England ties to good use here, picking up three extra picks while the Patriots could jump back into the third round. This trade would involve the 67th pick going to New England in exchange for the 96th, 120th, 122nd, and 139th heading in the opposite direction. Wishful thinking? Absolutely. But never say never when it comes to the draft.
Why you do it: More darts. More rolls of the dice. This is an inexact science, so take as many shots as possible. And, of course, Nick and Bill on the phone makes so much sense.
Texans 3 For Rams 3+4+5
Los Angeles is a team that has indicated that they are essentially in win-now mode, as signaled by their offseason trade for quarterback Matt Stafford. As such, seeing them jump up for a guy who they believe could be a missing piece of the puzzle isn’t impossible. This move would see Houston’s 67th pick heading to LA in exchange for the Rams’ 88th, 103rd, and 141st picks heading in the opposite direction.
Why you do it: Again, it’s the ‘More Darts” theory.
Texans 3+5 For Browns 3+3
Cleveland is another franchise that is clearly looking to build on the momentum they created last season. This trade would see both teams move up and down, with Houston swapping their 67th and 109th picks for Cleveland’s 89th and 91st overall picks. The third round looks set to have a number of potential starters littered throughout, particularly at cornerback and wide receiver which would both be welcome additions in Houston.
Why you do it: Once again, the “Bunch Theory.” Can you move down from 67 and still get two players who are comparable to that one?
To repeat: These trades are always going to be about the players available, and not just the math. But the Trade Value Chart helps the math match.